A Commentator’s Guide

to the Absa Cape Epic

There are a few things to look for when watching any bike race. The first is momentum. And the second is narrative. Narrative is like shouting napalm and claiming victory regardless of what your opponent threw in Rock, Paper, Scissors. It is an all-consuming fire which leaves us blind to logic and reason. Though sometimes the sporting gods smile upon a good story line too, or maybe that’s just the way it seems to us who cover bike races…

The long and the short of it is, take this guide with a pinch of salt. Maybe it will prove prophetic. But it probably will not.

The Prologue

The Prologue is always one of the most exciting days of the Absa Cape Epic. Everyone has an idea of what to expect, but before a crank has been pedalled in anger there is no momentum to guide any predictions. Pre-Epic form at XCO races or other stage races can go out the window for so many reasons, including picking up a bug on the flight to South Africa or the nerves simply getting to a rider or team. Or worse the prototype equipment a team is race testing for a sponsor proves instantaneously unsuitable to the harsh African terrain.

The Prologue also tends to produce at least one shock result, where an unfavoured team puts in a stellar performance. Think ORBEA LEATT Speed Company in 2022, or Novus OMX Pro’s Martin Gujan and Fabian Giger back in 2015.

Prediction:

Men: World Bicycle Relief’s Nino Schurter and Sebastian Fini

Women: Ghost Factory Racing’s Anne Terpstra and Nicole Koller

Dark Horses: Torpado Kenda Factory’s Diego Rosa and Casey South

Stage 1

Going all the way back to that very first stage, of the very first Absa Cape Epic, Stage 1 has always provided a stern test. That will be no different in 2024! The opening climb, Boegoe is unlikely to break the race up enough for the top teams to not come back together on the undulating tracks that follow. The singletrack ascent of the Kliprivier Trails and the climb to Jan se Bos will certainly string the top contenders out but Fanties Pass is where the decisive moves of the day are likely to happen.

In 2021, the last time the race climbed Fanties, Andreas Seewald and Martin Stošek emerged victorious on the day. Given the summit is only 12 kilometres from the finish it is possible that, as in 2021, any stage winning efforts might not earn the victors the yellow jerseys. Could we see a team going solo of the summit, with a handful of favourites pursuing them to the finish?

Prediction:

Men: Canyon SIDI’s Andreas Seewald and Martin Stošek

Women: Cannondale Factory Racing’s Candice Lill and Mona Mitterwallner

Stage 2

The Old Wagon Trail climb into the Witzenberg Valley will make a fast start a necessity on Stage 2. Narrowing to singletrack within the first 8 kilometres of the stage there will be no easing into the day. This will suit the top women’s teams. The UCI Women often set a steady tempo in the opening kilometres, rather than burn matches trying to thin the group on undulating dual tracks. An early climb will allow the strongest to come to the fore right from the off and battle it out, la manito, una manito.

Prediction:

Men: Toyota Specialized NinetyOne’s Matt Beers and Howard Grotts

Women: Efficient Infiniti Insure SCB SRAM’s Vera Looser and Alexis Skarda

Stage 3

The only transition stage of the race features asphalt opening kilometres as well as a tarmac assent of the Bainskloof Pass. That does not mean it is a day that will suit the roadies however, especially after a devastating fire raged through the Waterval Nature Reserve and the Zuurvlakte. It could be sandy and rocky in the wilds, with no vegetation to hold topsoil in place. Still, it will be a day for the strong men. How incredible would it be if Jaroslav Kulhavy rolled back the clock and monstered the stage, shelling teams like popped peas up Bainskloof Pass? Now that would be a narrative!

Our gut feeling is that two other strong men could seize the day.

Prediction:

Men: ORBEA LEATT Speed Company’s Georg Egger and Lukas Baum

Women: Toyota Specialized NinetyOne’s Sofia Gomez Villafane and Samara Sheppard

Stage 4

The Queen Stage will be a pivotal day for establishing momentum heading into the second half of the race. In the build-up to the event Candice Lill earmarked the day as one where Mona Mitterwallner should thrive. Then the South African went on to get one over her teammate at the Imbuko Big Five Challenge, which used a similar route. The day, back in February, also indicated that the local team, Imbuko Pro Cycling could add to their single Absa Cape Epic stage win to date.

Prediction:

Men: Imbuko Pro Cycling’s Marco Joubert and Wessel Botha

Women: Cannondale Factory Racing’s Candice Lill and Mona Mitterwallner

Stage 5

A shorter, but by no means easier day around the rockiest singletracks in Wellington. In years gone by these trails have been the stampeding ground of Team BULLS, and if the BULLS Mavericks are to have a strong race this could be their day. A more conservative prediction is for the Toyota Specialized Ninety One teams to prevail on a course which looks ideal for Matt Beers’ power riding.

Prediction:

Men: Toyota Specialized NinetyOne’s Matt Beers and Howard Grotts

Women: Toyota Specialized NinetyOne’s Sofia Gomez Villafane and Samara Sheppard

Stage 6

A day with a brutal looking saw tooth profile and hardly a metre of respite, Stage 6 could be a day where two races unfold in the UCI Men’s field. Up front a team outside of the general classification podium battle could surge out of the favourites group, while the top three mark each other, and race to stage victory, while a more tightly contested battle for yellow plays out behind. If anyone from the leading teams has a bad day, Stage 6 could compound it. This is a course where a 15 second gap can quickly balloon as rivals disappear out of sight in the singletracks.

Expect swings in the general classification. Even if the day’s winners are not the main beneficiaries.

Prediction:

Men: Wilier Vittoria Factory’s Fabian Rabensteiner and Samuele Porro

Women: Efficient Infiniti Insure SCB SRAM’s Vera Looser and Alexis Skarda

Stage 7

A tough final day means all it not won, yet. There will be no procession in the Absa Cape Epic. 2024 could see a repeat of 2022’s final day drama, when Georg Egger and Lukas Baum became the first riders to overturn a final stage deficit in the race’s history. If that is once again the case a team who endured back luck early in the race and then conserved their energy for the final stage, to chase a prestigious victory, could also benefit. Picking that team ahead of the race is a folly though.

In the women’s race a similar format could play out, especially if two or more of the top teams are still within a couple of minutes of each other. If that is the case it could open the day up for Monica Calderon to repeat her 2023 Grand Finale winning ride with Tessa Kortekaas for Cannondale ISB. Or it could be Scott Calabandida’s day?

Prediction:

Men: ??? (Sorry we have no clue)

Women: Scott Calabandida’s Natalia Fischer and Irina Luetzelschwab